6. Januar 2020
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The question of why the United States murdered Iranian General Solemani right now is a major concern of the world press. There are reports that Solemani was on a peacekeeping mission between Iran and Saudi Arabia that the United States wanted to prevent. Can this be?
Before I come to my assessment with very reliable evidence, I have to communicate something on my own behalf. Sometimes you can’t see the forest for the trees! I have an “archive” for exciting reports that are not worth an article in themselves, but that I save because they may become important again. An article on Nachdenkseiten , to which several readers referred me, reminded me of a message that was slumbering in my archive. More on that in a moment.
Of course, I also wondered how Trump – who has so far opposed the warmongers in Washington with all his might – was able to get involved in this action, a drone murder of the most important Iranian general at the airport in Baghdad. In the United States, you must have known that this would not be without consequences. The United States is not popular in Iraq and Iran cannot let something like this go through without a response. Trump cannot use a new war in the upcoming election campaign if he wants to win the election.
So, for some reason, the murder of Solemani must have been very important if you took such a risk.
I therefore speculated on my own that Trump was lured into a trap, perhaps against the background of preventing his re-election. The Washington Post reported on January 6 that Pompeo had been demanding Trump’s assassination of Soleimani for months, and the New York Times also reported on January 6 that Pompeo’s pressure increased at the end of December and that Trump finally had it let persuade.
But why, besides preventing Trump from being re-elected, can Washington circles find it so important to murder Soleimani? The thought pages report that Soleimani was on a diplomatic mission in which Iraq wanted to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It was about the exchange of diplomatic notes between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Baghdad.
Can this be?
Iran and Saudi Arabia are archenemies in the Gulf. The „Iranian threat“ is one of the main excuses why the United States maintains large military bases in Saudi Arabia. If the two countries made friends, the Saudi government would have no reason to justify the unpopular presence of so many „unbelievers“ in the country. In addition, an end to the conflict would run the risk of the oil states in the Gulf coming to an agreement, which would end the US influence on oil prices that they can only exert because the Saudis, in particular, are playing the game.
So it’s a lot for the United States. But is a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia realistic?
Putin was on a large state visit to Saudi Arabia at the end of October and the red carpet was rolled out there like no other. Russian television had covered this in detail . But more interesting than the reports about Putin’s visit was an interview that Putin gave three Arab TV stations in advance of the visit. In the interview, Putin was also asked about the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Putin announced that he wanted to mediate in the conflict. At the time , Putin said of an approximation process between the countries :
“As far as Russia is concerned, we will do everything we can to create the necessary conditions for such a positive dynamic. I think Russia has good relations with Iran and very good relations with our Arab friends. (…) If we use our good relations, both with Iran, with the Arab world, with Saudi Arabia, with the United Arab Emirates, I think we can find something that can be of common interest. „
This was followed by Putin’s state visit to Saudi Arabia at the end of October.
And now we come to the message that I put in the „Archive“ at the time: On November 4, less than two weeks later, the spokesman for the Iranian President announced that Iran had officially submitted the proposal to Saudi Arabia, cooperate on issues of regional security. The Russian news agency TASS quoted the spokesman for the Iranian president as follows :
„The Iranian President sent a letter to the King of Saudi Arabia on regional security, peace and stability (…) The pressure from the United States should not divide the neighbors in the region. (…) To achieve peace, we need collective cooperation ”
When I was talking about the Iraqi Prime Minister’s appearance on 5 January in front of his parliament, which, on his proposal, called for the withdrawal of all Western troops from Iraq on Sunday , I had also read somewhere in a sub-sentence that the Prime Minister had said , Soleimani was on a diplomatic mission in Baghdad. Mustafa Salim is a reporter for the Washington Post in Baghdad and has partially translated the Iraqi Prime Minister’s speech to the Parliament and published it on Twitter. Among other things, the Iraqi Prime Minister said:
„I was supposed to meet Soleimani the morning he was killed, he came to deliver an Iranian message in response to the message from Saudi Arabia that we conveyed.“
No word of it can be found in the „quality media“. But it does seem to be the case that Putin launched a dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran in October that was based on secret diplomatic notes that – at least in part – went through Baghdad. Incidentally, this is understandable, because Iraq has fairly good relations with both of its neighbors, i.e. with Iran and the Saudis. Iraq is perfect as a mediator.
The signs that this is so are more than clear. And it is clear that a rapprochement or even cooperation between the Saudis and Iran would be the worst-case scenario for US dominance in the Gulf. The United States would suddenly be superfluous there, they justify their massive military presence with the tensions and the unstable situation in the Gulf. If tensions dissipate tomorrow and the situation stabilizes, the voices in the Arab countries calling for the United States to withdraw would become very loud.
Incidentally, I was also amazed at the Saudi reaction to the attack and the tensions that followed. Saudi Arabia has always been the loudest when it comes to demonizing Iranian „misdeeds“ and demanding harsh reactions against Iran. It was all the more surprising for me that the Saudis did not sing along in the choir of the US Falcons – as is usually the case – in this context. Instead, the official statement from Saudi Arabia contained entirely new tones:
“We are extremely interested in the situation in the region not escalating further. Of course, now is a very dangerous time, so we have to acknowledge all risks and dangers, not only for the security of the region, but on a global scale. We hope that all players take the necessary steps to prevent further escalation or provocation. „
No word against Iran in the declaration, that’s a novelty.
The United States is now trying to gather its allies behind it. There was an unscheduled meeting at NATO on January 6, and TASS, citing an undisclosed participant, reported that the United States is making every effort to obtain a statement from NATO partners that it is committed to US policy in the United States Region and also support the drone attack on Soleimani.
Trump may have understood by now that he was led onto black ice. After firing violent tweets towards Tehran for days, one of his advisers also said on January 6 that Trump is still ready to negotiate directly with Iran on the nuclear deal. I would not overestimate this message, but it is very far from what Trump has said in recent days.
The version that Soleimani was killed by forces trying to prevent rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia seems more than likely to me, given all of these reports. The question is how far Iran and Saudi Arabia have come in the past two months. Have you developed a basic trust that is large enough to withstand the efforts of those who want to prevent rapprochement?
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