14. Mai 2020
https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Defender-Europe-2020-Plus-4721295.html
The major US exercise „Defender Europe 2020“, originally scheduled for the period between January and June 2020, was intended as a central component in the ubiquitous saber rattle against Russia. During the largest US maneuver in 25 years, 20,000 US soldiers from the United States should have been transported 4,000 km across Europe to the Russian border – a total of 37,000 soldiers were mentioned. Germany should play a central role in a series of NATO maneuvers, but above all in the logistical support for US troops (see Germany in the eye of the storm ).
Then, however, the corona crisis made a thorough dash to the USA through the maneuvering. In mid-March 2020, the media said: „That’s it: The corona virus has finally brought the US mega-maneuver to a standstill. ‚Defender 2020‘ will be ended early.“
By this time, 6000 US soldiers and 3000 vehicles had already been transported across the Atlantic , according to NATO . Although this naturally automatically raised the question of what would happen to these troops , the federal government replied to a request from the german left Party DIE LINKE in early April 2020 whether the exercises „Allied Spirit XI“ and „Trojan Footprint“, which were originally related to Defender 2020, despite the Corona crisis would take place, this is „not known to the federal government“.
Now the truth come out: At least Allied Spirit XI should be conducted in June 2020 regardless of the circumstances – the execution of further maneuvers associated with Defender 2020 has also been announced by the US Army Europe. A little more is now known about the scenario on which the exercise is based, although the new information essentially confirms what was already obvious: that the maneuver was directed against Russia.
Occasus scenario
From the official side, a common language regulation was maintained until the end: Defender 2020 was a purely defensive undertaking that was in no way directed against a specific state. Martin Schelleis, who was in command of the armed forces base and was responsible for all German logistics support for the US troops, is representative: „It [the Defender 2020 exercise] is not directed against Russia.“
Of course, no one believes that and commentators with a little more rhetorical legroom had frankly and freely admitted this from the start. Christian Mölling from the „German Society for Foreign Policy“ stated:
The overall point is to show Russia that if the worst comes to the worst it is ready and able to protect Northeastern part of Europe. Because that is currently one of NATO’s key Achilles heels. We know that with the few associations we have up there, we can’t keep going for long. That said, it will all depend on increasing endurance by actually sending reinforcements.
Christian Mölling
The scenario on which the large-scale exercise is based emerges from the response to a request from Bundestag member Tobias Pflüger (Left Party): „To the knowledge of the Federal Government, DEFENDER-Europe 20 and all exercise projects integrated or connected to it are based on the scenario OCCASUS.“
At the same time, however, the federal government of Germany confirmed that it was also unwilling to provide too many details about the scenario: „Since the question relates to classified information from allies, no statement can be made about this.“ There was only one thing she absolutely wanted to emphasize: „The scenario of the exercise is fictitious, derivations from real conditions are not possible.“
However, there can hardly be any talk of a fictitious scenario, the german newspaper TAZ wrote about Occasus at the beginning of May:
The essence of the conflict: An alliance around the fictional state of Murinus wants to weaken NATO and therefore increases its military presence in the neighborhood of the alliance area. Then it attacks one of the member countries directly and uses hybrid warfare. The fictional alliance wants to disguise its own role in the conflict, for example by sending soldiers in uniforms with no emblem of the sovereign. Through a propaganda campaign, she also spreads the claim that the attacked NATO state is suppressing an ethnic minority in the country. Reminds this of the role of Russia in the Ukraine conflict?
TAZ
Now one may assess the role of the West and Russia in the conflict in Ukraine, and it seems quite obvious how one would like it to serve as a model for the Occasus scenario. And in this context, defender 2020 should „optimize“ the rapid troop transport in the event of an escalation, which can also be used defensively as well as offensively. In this respect, it is almost amusing when the Federal Government states in surprise that it cannot explain all the fuss on the Russian side:
The (military) exercise was criticized as expected by representatives of the government of the Russian Federation despite its defensive character and despite the voluntary transparency measures originally planned by Germany, among others.
Federal government
In any case, parts of the German security policy establishment considered the exercise so important that they did not want to put up with the complete cancellation. Some time ago, Claudia Major and Dominic Vogel from the government’s „Science and Politics Foundation“ campaigned for a repetition of Defender:
[S] The wheels have been standing still since March 16. […] But as soon as the circumstances allow it, the exercise should be repeated: The military challenges remain regardless of the pandemic, from issues like Russia to terrorism. The Bundeswehr and NATO allies must continue to be able to provide mutual assistance should they fall victim to an armed attack. And so it has to be tested what many European countries have forgotten: fast and safe transport across national borders. This is about an internal procedural exercise, not about playing through an attack scenario.
Claudia Major and Dominic Vogel
As explained, the nature of the exercise is understandably assessed in Russia completely differently. In any case, the SWP requirement emphasizes the importance attached to the maneuver. However, a complete new edition this year is likely to be off the table due to new statements by the US Army that it now wants to delay part of the associated maneuvers.
Defender sequel: Allied Spirit
Apparently, parts of Defender 2020 were not completely canceled, but simply put on hold. This was only obvious because there was no mention of a return transport of the US soldiers already shipped to Europe. On May 13, 2020 , the US Army Europe reported under the title „DEFENDER-Europe 20 Plus“. Parts of the maneuver would be continued shortly:
After careful assessment and planning between the U.S. Army Europe and the Polish Department of Defense, Exercise Allied Spirit will take place at Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland, from June 5 to 19, an exercise in conjunction with DEFENDER-Europe 20, originally scheduled for May was. […] Approximately 6,000 US and Polish soldiers will take part in the exercise. […] The US-Poland bilateral exercise, which COVID-19 modified from its original design to ensure the safety of soldiers, will include a Polish airborne operation and an American-Polish division-sized river crossing.
U.S. Army Europe
US Army Europe also announced a number of other Defender 2020 related maneuvers for the year in the same press release:
The US Army Europe is planning further maneuvers in the coming few months. These maneuvers will take up many of the original DEFENDER-Europe 20 training goals to improve operational readiness and interoperationality between the United States, its allies and partner military.
U.S. Army Europe
Germany will probably not play a role in Allied Spirit XI, but is likely to be involved in another way. In any case, the US Army in Europe states that there are „plans to practice with the equipment that has already been taken out of camps“, including equipment for an „armored combat brigade that continues to operate at the Bergen-Hohne military training area with the support of German armed forces base „.
In any case, it is clear that the Defender spook is not even done for this year – and the next maneuver round is already on the doorstep for the coming one.
After Defender is before Defender
The U.S. has put together a kind of double maneuver package: This year, a large scope was planned for the European variant with a budget of $ 340 million (the US part alone) and a slimmed-down version for the East Asian counterpart „Defender Pacific“ .
In the coming year it should be the other way round: The US Army has requested $ 150 million for Defender Europe 2021 (Defender Pacific is estimated at 364 million). While this is significantly less than this year’s version, it’s still enough to make Defender Europe 2021 a major event in the coming year that needs the peace movement’s attention again. ( Jürgen Wagner )
